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With nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has begun the season in spectacular form.

Although this isn't his best start to a season - he scored 11 goals in his initial seven matches in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the initial race for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

The reality that zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Certainly, physical problems might significantly impact in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so early in the season.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the number and quality of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Secondly, the modest opening his regular challengers for the prize have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) signifies how many goals a English league attacker has historically scored from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a statistic haphazardly selected by statistical experts, but by English top-flight records.

And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this season from regular situations, the Scandinavian attacker is getting so many more quality chances to score than any other player.

In fact, even if Haaland were no better at finishing chances than every other footballer in the division, he would nonetheless have netted significantly more goals as all other players.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by examining the total and standard of opportunities that footballers have received in the English first division so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this term, 12 more than any other player.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 on average.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Among footballers attempting at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - due to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 expected goals per shot he had at the opening of last term.

To summarize, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been notably easier to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so powerfully is, as mentioned above, typical for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had registered ten strikes - a quartet more than anyone else and six more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Liverpool forward who claimed the top scorer award with twenty-nine strikes, a touchdown more than the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Indeed this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It isn't only Salah who has opened quietly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players put together so far.

Be it because of injuries - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - extended transfer dramas in one particular striker's situation or simply because their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have not fired so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European Golden Shoe that is presented to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's premier competitions?

That competition is significantly tighter at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the top chance quality metric of the three players without having taken any spot-kicks renders him the likely winner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are among the finest converters in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the competition remains open.