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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still